ROC Olympic selection picture clears up after European Championships, and other things we learned

For a while, figure skating world champion Anna Shcherbakova must have had concerns that she might miss out on the Olympic Winter Games Beijing 2022.

The 17-year-old from Moscow fell on a combination jump during her short program at the just-concluded European Championships in Tallinn, the last major event taken into consideration by the ROC and its figure skating federation for Olympic selection.

That mistake left her down in fourth place, but a strong recovery in the free skate propelled her to a silver medal, likely cementing her place in the Olympic team alongside her teammates in Tallinn, bronze medallist Alexandra Trusova as well as the new European champion Kamila Valieva.

It's expected that the team announcement will be made in the coming week.

Speaking after the free skate on Saturday (15 January), Shcherbakova said: "I think getting there will be overwhelming. I just [get my head around it] that it will be that soon. So many athletes talk about how special the Olympics is and I would love to get a glimpse of that. Two years ago I was in China at the Grand Prix and I loved it."

At just 15, Valieva – the world record score holder for both women's singles skating segments as well as total score – is already the runaway favourite for gold in the Chinese capital.

"It is a dream of every athlete and being there is already an achievement," she reflected.

"To be in the Olympic Village, to feel the energy because so many athletes go there with one goal... Many of them are not 15 years old and they try to get to the Olympics their whole life."

As for Trusova, her programs in both segments in Estonia were marred by falls, but she still has one of the strongest technical jumping repertoires on the Grand Prix circuit.

"I've heard many times that it's a different feeling that you get there," she said of likely making the Olympic team. "It will be great to be there and I hope I get to enjoy it."

While the women's team appears set, there remains a question mark over what the final make-up of the ROC men's team will be.

ROC men: Kondratiuk appears secure, but Mozalev and Semenenko face nervous wait

There seems little doubt that Mikhail Kolyada, who missed the European Championships with an unspecified injury, will make the Olympic team if healthy.

He claimed two Grand Prix silver medals this season and is the team's most consistent performer, even if he is unlikely to challenge the likes of Nathan Chen or Hanyu Yuzuru at the top of the global stage.

Kolyada also has prior Olympic experience, having been part of the Olympic Athletes from Russia team at PyeongChang 2018.

Mark Kondratiuk's unexpected double victories, first at the Russian national championships in December followed by at Europeans, would seem to secure his ticket to Beijing, too.

Which leaves unanswered the question of who fills the third and final spot.

Dmitri Aliev, a PyeongChang 2018 Olympian himself, is the top-ranked man from his country on the ISU World Standings, mostly thanks to a strong 2019/20 season in which he won the European title.

However, his form has suffered recently, finishing ninth and fifth at his two Grands Prix this season before a disappointing ninth place at the national championships all but extinguished his hopes, and ensured he would not be selected for the European Championships.

Evgeni Semenenko would have fancied his chances as incumbent for the third spot ahead of Europeans.

He was selected for the competition alongside Kolyada and Kondratiuk despite finishing behind Andrei Mozalev at the national championships, only for Mozalev to join the team after Kolyada's withdrawal.

In Tallinn, it was the 2020 world junior champion and Youth Olympic silver medallist Mozalev who once again out-performed Semenenko – but neither man truly impressed.

It will be a difficult decision for the selectors.

What else did we learn from the 2022 European Championships?

Given the dominance of Valieva, Shcherbakova, and Trusova, it does feel difficult to see how any other women's skater breaks up the ROC triumvirate in Beijing.

The Japanese skaters Sakamoto Kaori and Higuchi Wakaba, as well as American Alysa Liu, could all have an eye on being near the top – at least in the short program.

As Belgium's Loena Hendrickx showed in Tallinn, where she was second after the short, it is not impossible for other skaters to make an impression should any of the top three falter as they did.

But the free skate is a different beast, and the top three – even if they fall – have more than enough technical ability to cover any errors.

The pairs event in Tallinn was also dominated by three teams that will likely be in Beijing for the ROC, with world champions Anastasia Mishina and Aleksandr Galliamov winning.

They do appear to be the strongest of the three, but having to face home favourites Sui Wenjing and Han Cong on Chinese ice will be a different beast.

On their day, Sui and Han make it look effortless. Couple that with what will be vociferous home backing, and they will not be easy to beat.

The other two ROC pairs, Aleksandra Boikova / Dmitri Kozlovskii and Evgenia Tarasova / Vladimir Morozov, will hope to be in the conversation too but the world champions are a step above right now.

Ice dance race heats up with multiple teams in Olympic podium hunt

In ice dance, the European Championships could have served as a potential dress rehearsal for the Olympic Games, if not for the withdrawal of Gabriella Papadakis and Guillaume Cizeron.

The French duo are undoubtedly gold medal favourites, and opted to skip the event to reduce their contact with other people and protect themselves ahead of Beijing 2022.

With world champions Victoria Sinitsina and Nikita Katsalapov triumphing in Tallinn, and having beaten the French at their last head-to-head meeting in 2020, that appears to be the showdown that we'll get in Beijing.

Italy's Charlene Guignard and Marco Fabbri as well as another ROC team, Alexandra Stepanova and Ivan Bukin, both performed well over the weekend but both teams are likely to have to contend with three North American teams who were not present in Tallinn for a spot on the podium.

Also of note was the overall performance of two Ice Academy of Montreal teams, Olivia Smart / Adrián Díaz of Spain and Lilah Fear / Lewis Gibson of Great Britain, who feature in the Olympic Channel original series On Edge.

Smart and Díaz have been locked in a nerve-wracking head-to-head all season with fellow Spaniards Sara Hurtado and Kirill Khaliavin for just one Olympic spot. The Montreal-based duo came up trumps, but it is clear that the competition has pushed both teams to even higher levels of performance.

As for Fear and Gibson, fifth place in Tallinn solidifies a strong season of work which included a Grand Prix medal, and a top-eight finish in Beijing is certainly very plausible.

The ISU Four Continents Championships take place over the next week and will also be held in Tallinn, but most countries are sending only a second string of skaters with the notable exception of South Korea.

At Beijing 2022, the figure skating competition runs throughout the Games, starting on 4 February and ending on 19 February.