How can Argentina qualify for FIFA World Cup 2022 round of 16 - know all qualification scenarios
Argentina’s FIFA World Cup chances of making the knockouts now depend on their final Group C match vs Poland. Get all the permutations and combinations here.
Football
A 2-0 win over Mexico in its second Group C fixture on Sunday kept the Argentina national football team’s chances of qualifying for the FIFA World Cup 2022 knockout rounds alive.
Considered pre-tournament favourites coming into the football World Cup in Qatar, Argentina’s campaign started with a shock 2-1 defeat to underdogs Saudi Arabia in their opening match. It was one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history.
The early debacle made the match against Mexico at the Lusail Stadium a must-win encounter for Lionel Messi and Co. and the team delivered. After resolute resistance from Mexico for almost an hour, a long-range low shot from Lionel Messi finally gave Argentina the all-important lead and youngster Enzo Fernandez capped off a 2-0 win with a late screamer.
Argentina’s qualification scenario in Group C
The win brought Argentina up to the second position in FIFA World Cup 2022 Group C standings with three points from two games, behind group toppers Poland, who have four points from two games. Saudi Arabia, also on three points, are third courtesy an inferior goal difference to Argentina while Mexico are at the bottom with a single point.
* Top two teams from each group make the Round of 16 (pre-quarterfinals)
Glossary: GF - Goals For (Goals Scored), GA - Goals Against (Goals Conceded), GD - Goal Difference
With two matches left to play, Group C is wide open with all four teams still in with a chance to qualify for the Round of 16. The top two teams from the group make the cut for the knockouts.
The fate of the group, including Argentina’s, will be decided on the final matchday of the group with Argentina facing off against Robert Lewandowski’s Poland at Stadium 974 in Doha while Saudi Arabia and Mexico lock horns at the Lusail Stadium. Both matches kick off concurrently at 12:30 AM IST in India on December 1.
How can Argentina qualify for the FIFA World Cup 2022 knockouts
Argentina win vs Poland
Fortunately for Argentina and Lionel Messi, their qualification for the FIFA World Cup 2022 in Qatar is still in their own hands. A win against Poland in the final Group C match guarantees Argentina qualification in the round of 16.
A win over Poland will see Argentina’s points tally go up to six points - a haul which can only be matched by Saudi Arabia if they beat Mexico in their final group game. However, with Argentina holding a two-goal positive goal difference over Saudi Arabia currently, the Asian team will need to win by a huge margin to deny Argentina the top position in Group C.
Unlike UEFA competitions where head-to-head results act as the first layer of tie-breaker if two teams are level on points, goal difference takes priority at the FIFA World Cup.
Topping the group may also hold an advantage as it will help Argentina avoid defending champions France, who look set to win Group D, in the Round of 16.
Argentina draw vs Poland
The equation, however, becomes far more complicated if Argentina draw their final Group C match against Poland. A draw will bring Argentina’s tally to four points and topping the group becomes impossible with Poland getting to five points.
In such a scenario, Argentina will need to rely on the result of the Saudi Arabia vs Mexico match to qualify for the World Cup knockouts in Qatar.
The worst-case scenario for Argentina will be a Saudi Arabia win, which will see the Asian team top the group with six points followed by Poland in second with five, knocking Messi and Co. out of the tournament.
If Mexico win, both Argentina and Mexico will be tied on four points and in this case, goal difference will come into play. But since La Seleccion hold a three-goal positive goal difference over the Mexicans as things stand, Argentina will qualify.
Mexico can only finish over Argentina if they win the match vs Saudi Arabia by three goals or more.
If Mexico win by three goals and offset Argentina’s goal difference advantage, the number of goals scored will be considered a tie-breaker. Meanwhile, a win for Mexico by four goals or more will see them make the knockouts at Argentina's expense.
If Mexico and Saudi Arabia play out a draw, Argentina and Saudi Arabia will both finish on four points but Argentina are guaranteed to finish over the Saudis in the points table courtesy their superior goal difference.
Argentina lose vs Poland
If Argentina lose their final Group C match against Poland, their campaign at the FIFA World Cup 2022 will end regardless of what happens in the other match between Mexico and Saudi Arabia.
A loss will keep Argentina at three points while Poland will secure the top spot with seven points. Any combination of results in the Mexico vs Saudi Arabia match will bring one of the two teams to at least four points, knocking Argentina out of the FIFA World Cup 2022.