Eliud Kipchoge: Can anyone upset the world record holder at the 2023 Boston Marathon?

There’s a comment on Eliud Kipchoge’s most recent Instagram post before 17 April’s Boston Marathon that reads: “So who do y’all think finishes 2nd?”

The words may have been tongue in cheek but they sum up what many think about the great Kenyan distance runner’s chances at this year’s Patriots’ Day race in the capital of Massachusetts.

For a man who is the reigning marathon world record holder, two-time Olympic gold medallist and winner of 15 of the 17 marathon races he has ever entered, anything less than first place would send shockwaves around the world.

But that Instagram comment also leads to another question: Is there anyone racing in this year’s Boston Marathon capable of finishing ahead of the most formidable marathon runner of all time?

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The last time Kipchoge lost a marathon was in 2020 when he battled an ear blockage and finished eighth in London to end a winning streak of 10 races over the 42.195 km distance. Prior to that, his only defeat came when he crossed the line second as a relative novice in the 2013 Berlin Marathon.

However, this year Kipchoge faces a very different sort of challenge. The 2023 Boston Marathon will be his first, as he seeks to set course records in every one of the six World Marathon Majors (he currently owns half of them).

And while he will need to adapt to the punishing hills and unique layout of the race, there are also challenges in human (and non-human) form that may make this the hardest marathon in the athlete’s illustrious career.

Speedy challengers in top form for Boston

Make no mistake, the 2023 Boston Marathon men’s elite field is fast.

A total of 11 men who will line up in this year's race have run a marathon in under 2 hours and 6 minutes.

And while only two athletes not named Kipchoge in the men’s field have completed a marathon faster than the Boston course record of 2:03:02, many of the group assembled to take on the upcoming race are in blistering form.

Five of the six 2022 World Marathon Majors were won by athletes competing in Boston, with Kipchoge himself winning two (Tokyo and Berlin).

It means that for one of the rare times in his career, he will be up against numerous runners who know what it’s like to be victorious on the biggest stage and will give everything they have to end his dream of triumphing in Boston.

Fastest personal bests of men competing in the Boston Marathon

Evans Chebet: The defending champion

With a best time of 2:03:00 set in the 2020 Valencia Marathon, Kenya's Evans Chebet is the joint second-fastest runner in the Boston Marathon field (along with Gabriel Geay), behind only Kipchoge himself.

But what makes him even more of a threat is his experience of Boston. Chebet is the reigning champion having produced a time of 2:06:51 to win last year’s race and knows better than many the challenges the world’s oldest annual marathon race can pose.

In a remarkable 2022, Chebet also won the New York City Marathon (2:08:41) and has a record that includes wins in Valencia (2020), Lake Biwa (2020) and Buenos Aires (2019), as well as a strong fourth place finish in London in his only race in 2021.

Will Boston experience trump the brilliance of Kipchoge?

Benson Kipruto: The challenger who loves to race in the USA

Another Kenyan athlete who knows exactly what it takes to win in Boston is 2021 winner Benson Kipruto. While on paper, his best time of 2:04:24 is only the fifth fastest in the field, the Kenyan returns to the USA this year having set his personal best in 2022 on American soil when he won the Chicago Marathon in 2:04:24.

Kipruto also has victories in the 2021 Prague Marathon - Battle of the Teams and 2018 Toronto Waterfront Marathon. And if the race is close coming into the final kilometres, you can expect him to pull out his signature surge to the finish line that has seen him break free of the field in both the 2021 edition of the Boston Marathon and the 2022 Chicago Marathon.

Lelisa Desisa: Two-time conqueror of Boston aiming to return to glory days

One man who knows the streets of Boston better than most is Ethiopia's two-time champion Lelisa Desisa. The 33-year-old triumphed in both the 2013 and 2015 editions of the Boston Marathon before going on to win the 2018 New York City Marathon, making him one of the most decorated athletes in the men's field.

But Desisa's record of success in Boston goes even deeper than that, with second-place finishes in both 2016 and 2019. And while he hasn't triumphed in a Marathon Major since 2018, as he also has a second place and two third-place finishes in New York you could argue that he is the field's master of American marathon running.

The weather: The unpredictable challenge of the Boston Marathon

If there’s something that can scupper an athlete’s dream that’s completely out of their control, it could just be the Boston weather. Or to be more precise, how unpredictable the weather is.

In the 2018 race, average temperatures of six degrees Celsius (44 degrees Fahrenheit) along with rain and even falling hail made that year’s marathons one of the most challenging in history. Over half of the elite field dropped out due to the atrocious running conditions that year.

The 2022 race was a relatively balmy 16 degrees Celsius (62 degrees Fahrenheit) and while the averages since 2018 have been relatively consistent, at Boston, more than many other marathons, you just don’t know.

Athletes also have no idea whether they will run with a strong tailwind behind them, as was the case for Geoffrey Mutai when he set the course record in 2011, or face a gruelling headwind.

It makes training for the conditions a challenge in itself, with Kipchoge acknowledging this recently by saying, “The weather can be unpredictable, but I am trying to be an all-weather man.”

Eliud Kipchoge vs Eliud Kipchoge

In the end, Kipchoge has learned to measure his performance against himself.

No matter what anyone else in the field does on 17 April, if the great Kenyan races to the best of his abilities there’s little chance of anyone beating him on the course of Boston.

As the only man to have ever run a sub-two-hour marathon, Kipchoge is in a league of his own when it comes to the distance.

The 38-year-old not only owns four of the top 10 times in history but has dealt with virtually every challenge thrown at him since he made his debut at the Hamburg Marathon of 2013.

And, if he sticks to his own strategy, there are not many who could argue that one of the most difficult questions from this year’s Boston Marathon won’t be who will win but rather: “So who do y’all think finishes 2nd?”